The gap between potential and actual yield varied from 382 to 7515 kg ha −1, with the highest values in Shanxi, Gansu and Shaanxi provinces and the lowest values in Sichuan province. The results showed that the potential wheat yield gradually increased from south to north and from west to east, with a spatial distribution consistent with the accumulated hours of sunshine. This study used WheatGrow and CERES-Wheat models integrated with a GIS to estimate winter wheat productivity, yield gap and water use in the main wheat production regions of China. Wheat production is of great importance for national food security and is greatly influenced by the spatial variation of climatic variables, soils, cultivars, etc.
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